Originally published by Brenda Shaffer of The Australian
27.03.2026
Every major energy crisis invites finger-pointing. In 2022, the world blamed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for a spike in natural-gas prices. This time, it’s attributing the energy crisis to the war in Iran. But challenges in energy production and trade because of geopolitical tension are common. The true culprit behind recent disruptions and price volatility is global energy policy. Western countries’ abandonment of fossil fuels left the world’s energy supply vulnerable to disruptions and price increases.
For years, the world’s top policymakers have heralded the move from fossil fuels to renewable energy as an inevitability. Despite trillions of dollars in renewable technology investments, fossil fuels accounted for 87 per cent of global energy consumption in 2024, almost unchanged from the 1970s. Global oil, natural gas and coal demand reached record levels in 2025.
Under the illusion of an imminent energy transition, Western governments and institutions stopped investing in fossil fuels. In 2019 the World Bank halted funding for upstream oil and natural-gas projects. The International Energy Agency’s “Net Zero by 2050” report in 2021 called for no new investments in fossil fuels. The same year the Group of Seven countries committed to end public financing for overseas fossil-fuel projects. The message was clear: Investment in oil, gas and coal was no longer welcome.
These policies have inflicted devastating consequences particularly in Africa, where large volumes of oil and gas in multiple fields were discovered in the 2010s. Had investments continued, Africa could have become a critical energy supplier, and the increased supply outside the Middle East could have softened the effect of current energy disruptions.
While the West doubled down on the renewable-energy pivot, energy security continued to suffer. Europe chose to rely on volatile liquefied natural gas supplies from distant regions rather than making long-term commitments to more secure sources such as pipeline gas from Azerbaijan.
The US retreated from its traditional role of ensuring freedom of navigation on the world’s seas, a core tenet of global energy security. The Biden administration’s withdrawal from its global maritime security responsibilities – exemplified by its failure for several years to address Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and the spillover of the Russia-Ukraine war into the Black Sea since 2022 – set the stage for the current challenge in the Strait of Hormuz.
Since the Iran war began, many Western policymakers have stated that moving to renewable energy would avoid oil and gas crises. But a transition carries geopolitical challenges, too. As countries increasingly rely on China for solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles and critical minerals, they risk dependence on a single strategic competitor. Electrification also raises the risk of cyberattacks, which threaten the stability of energy infrastructure. Rather than reducing risk, renewable energy opens new vulnerabilities that could undermine national security. Additionally, renewable energy is still dependent on a baseload of fossil fuels – it can’t replace them outright.
Europe’s reliance on expensive and unreliable renewable power has already begun to deindustrialise parts of the Continent. The UK and Germany are experiencing economic challenges as high electricity costs diminish industrial competitiveness.
To restore global energy security, the US and its allies must see the problem as a national security imperative. The Trump administration should require that the World Bank and the G-7 unleash energy production in the developing world through restoration of public finance. Washington and its allies need to uphold freedom of navigation of the world’s seas and not wait until a crisis to address a threat.
Europe needs to face reality. Adding large amounts of renewable energy produced higher prices, less reliable grids, and more dependence on China. If the West is going to withstand the next crisis, policymakers need to treat energy security as a national-security priority – and realise fossil fuels aren’t going anywhere.
Ms Shaffer is a faculty member at the US Naval Postgraduate School’s Energy Academic Group and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Centre.
The Wall Street Journal