Originally published by Jan-Arne Johansen of The Australian
13.04.2026
The disruption to the global order is bringing an age of rolling crises, and uncertainty is now a feature of the operating environment.
The cadence of shocks, from a pandemic to conflicts, and from blocked shipping lanes to cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, has intensified, now arriving faster than political and investment cycles. For a nation whose prosperity is reliant on trade, this reality should be foremost in Australian minds.
If we accept that uncertainty is increasingly a feature of the operating environment, then energy resilience becomes a first-order national interest, not a technical subset of climate or industry policy. Energy resilience, for Australia, is inseparable from its role as a reliable supplier of gas and LNG to our region.
Gas is already central to that story. Today, the Asia-Pacific region accounts for roughly 63 per cent of global LNG demand, and by 2050 that share is expected to approach 75 per cent as populations and economies grow. LNG demand across the region is projected to increase steadily through to mid-century, even under ambitious decarbonisation scenarios, as coal is phased down and intermittent renewables scale up.
Rather than choose between renewables and gas, we need to blend them to meet energy demand. A blended approach is what is keeping the lights on, meeting the demand from an increasing Asian middle class, powering data centres, and keeping emissions down and economies growing.
Australia has the opportunity – and, I would argue, the obligation – to help manage that blend.
First, because energy resilience is the best insurance we have against geopolitical shocks. When pipeline gas is weaponised, when a key shipping lane is blocked, or when sanctions disrupt traditional trade routes, the flexibility and diversity of LNG supply becomes a safety valve.
Countries with diversified gas supply withstand price spikes and physical shortages better than those without. Australia’s LNG gives us and our neighbours options when others are withdrawing or constrained.
Second, because our exports underpin our own resilience. The scale and flexibility of our LNG industry – built on more than $400bn of investment since 2010 – has unlocked domestic supply on both coasts and underwritten hundreds of thousands of high-productivity, high-wage Australian jobs.
Export volumes are not just a line in government budgetary papers or company annual reports; they are the economies of scale that make domestic gas more available and, over time, more affordable.
They generate substantial fiscal contributions for both state and federal budgets through company tax, royalties and export revenues, which ultimately support the public services and infrastructure across Australia.
There is a false view being presented that Australia has enough domestic supply and does not need to export. Yet the only meaningful guarantee for Australian households and manufacturers is more supply, not more intervention.
Third, because Australia is uniquely placed to be Asia’s secure energy partner. Our geographic proximity to key markets in Japan, Korea, China and Southeast Asia gives us a structural freight advantage. LNG from Australia reaches Asian buyers more quickly and at lower shipping cost than cargoes from the US Gulf Coast, the Atlantic or Africa.
Don’t cede our energy crown
Our proximity and reliability are noted favourably by our key trading partners, who acknowledge the critical importance of Australian LNG infrastructure for their energy needs. Our projects operate under some of the world’s most stringent environmental and safety regimes.
With significant remaining resources and high-quality infrastructure already built and operating, Australia has all the fundamentals required to be a globally competitive LNG powerhouse for decades to come.
Those attributes matter in a contested world. Energy has always been a tool of statecraft. Other producers from the United States, Qatar, Russia and Saudi Arabia use energy exports to project influence and cultivate interdependence.
When Australia steps back, others step in. We forfeit not just revenue, but also a seat at the table on regional security, trade and climate diplomacy. This time of energy disruption provides the opportunity for the government to reinforce Australia’s role as a trusted and reliable energy partner. Achieving this objective will be long remembered by trading nations, ensuring long-term deepening relations.
Crucially, being an energy supplier does not put us on the wrong side of the climate ledger. Recent work by S&P Global for ANGEA found that LNG from Australia, the US and Qatar used in Asian power systems has, on average, 47 per cent lower lifecycle emissions than coal. Pairing more LNG with renewables could cut power sector emissions in key Asian markets by around one third by 2035, with only a modest uplift in overall system investment. Our Asian partners cannot decarbonise without cleaner fuels, and we should not attempt to decarbonise in isolation from them.
That leads to a hard, but necessary, point. Global gas demand will be met, with or without Australia. The question is whether we choose to remain relevant and integrate with trading partners’ net-zero pathways while they retain value, recycle the proceeds into renewables, transmission and electrification, and lock in regional partnerships – or whether we allow others with higher emissions supply and lower standards to fill the gap.
ConocoPhillips Australia does not argue for a “free-for-all”. On the contrary, if Australia is to restore and sustain its leadership as an LNG exporter, we need a much clearer “contract” between the country that owns natural resources and the companies that seek to explore, develop and produce these natural resources. The trade-off for this “contract” is that companies need to get on with the business and ensure that all LNG producers are doing their bit to supply the domestic market.
Continued investment to support these projects relies on regulatory and fiscal certainty for investors, rather than a patchwork of short-term interventions. This means a well-designed gas reservation framework that provides certainty in exchange for LNG producers to contribute equitably towards meeting domestic demand. It means recognising that foreign capital, deployed long-term under predictable rules and competitive approval timelines, is a strength – not a threat – for large, long-lived projects.
For over 20 years, ConocoPhillips Australia has demonstrated its commitment to developing gas resources in Australia by investing over $20bn in Australian gas projects. ConocoPhillips Australia is a 47.5 per cent shareholder and downstream operator of Australia Pacific LNG, which currently spends over $3bn a year to develop gas resources in Australia to remain a significant, longstanding “positive supplier”, delivering approximately 20 per cent of the total supply to Australia’s east coast gas market.
Above all, it means being honest about trade-offs. We cannot have resilient, low-emissions energy at home, strategic influence abroad, and record fiscal dividends, while simultaneously signalling that new gas investment is unwelcome.
Australia’s ability to keep energy flowing to our region is one of our most important strategic strengths. Treating that role as something we can quietly quit, rather than leverage wisely, would prove to be a costly mistake.
We should instead embrace it in order to secure our own gas needs, provide certainty for investment and lean into our international role as a trusted, cleaner energy supplier. That is what energy resilience looks like in an age of uncertainty – for Australia, and for our region.
Jan-Arne Johansen is president of ConocoPhillips Australia.