Courtesy of Petroleum Australia
11.08.2025
While the state has historically enjoyed abundant, low-cost gas, future supply security is no longer guaranteed, and addressing forecast shortfalls will involve higher prices.
EnergyQuest CEO Rick Wilkinson stated: “The West Coast Gas Outlook 2025 shows that the market is sending a message – a likelihood of shortfalls, and fewer supply options means higher prices.
“There is enough gas in the market now and for the next few years, but then the market becomes tight, followed by increasing shortfalls through the 2030s.
“The outlook for strong demand and not enough growth in supply is translating into prices above the level that historic market fundamentals would suggest.”
Wilkinson also emphasised the industrial significance of gas to WA’s economy, stating: “WA needs some big solutions to fix what may become a big problem.
“WA has a large, gas-using industrial base. Decarbonisation is an economy wide goal but gas users in mining, alumina, ammonia, and urea are unlikely to have any alternative to ongoing natural gas use for at least the next decade.
“And, for some gas users, the availability of natural gas is the key to reducing emissions over the medium term.
“WA will need new gas supplies brought to market to maintain its industrial base into the future.”
The report notes that although the Scarborough gas project is set to add supply from 2026, most of that gas is already contracted and will be absorbed by rising demand.
The Perth Basin, previously a key supply area, has experienced disappointing results in recent years. Looking further ahead, Wilkinson remarked: “WA will need something big to meet demand into the 2030s.
“The Browse project and Dorado are both in that category but are yet to be sanctioned.
“If new supply does not come online WA would need to rely even more on existing LNG projects, with potential negative flow on effects for investor sentiment.”
Despite these challenges, WA still has some time to act.
Wilkinson commented: “WA still has the benefit of time, but the problem has moved a year closer and isn’t going away.
“Something will need to change if WA is to avoid the market disruptions seen in the east coast in recent years.”
The report spans 238 pages of comprehensive data and analysis by EnergyQuest’s multidisciplinary team of geologists, petroleum engineers, and gas marketers.
It provides updated supply, demand, and price forecasts through to 2050.
The long-term outlook suggests a structural shortfall starting in 2028 could grow significantly in coming decades.
Even aggressive assumptions to reduce gas demand by 2050 show demand remaining resilient, especially if carbon capture and storage technologies are adopted by major gas users in the state.
This outlook raises concerns about potential economic impacts if gas shortages emerge, highlighting the need for timely investment and policy measures to secure new gas supplies for Western Australia’s industries and energy needs.